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Posted on 26 June by hfranzen Since the time of Kepler and Galileo there has been steady progress in the precision with which humans can predict the outcome of kinematic events.
As is well known, major advances were made by Newton and Einstein and today we can predict with extraordinary accuracy the trajectory of an object traveling with a known velocity under the influence of gravitational forces.
This does not mean that the trajectory of a rocket traveling to Mars, for example, is known with absolute precision but is to some extent uncertain. Such uncertainty is a reality in all scientific calculations and those who depend upon the results of such calculations must be aware of this fact.
However in cases of the character of rocket trajectory calculations the uncertainties themselves are understood such that we can be very certain that a rocket meant to go to Mars will arrive there barring some unforeseen catastrophe such as an engine failure or a giant solar flare.
In the same fashion there are many areas in our lives communication, GPS, air traffic control, cat scans, MRI, internal combustion, electric generation and transmission, radar, computer automation, etc.
This is simply to state an obvious fact of our lives in the 21st century. In this essay I will distinguish between three types of science, What I have briefly described above is a type of science that I will, for convenience, call Type A.
I will take science to be of Type A if, in principal, the uncertainty in the result and the uncertainty in that uncertainty can be numerically calculated and the relative uncertainties in each can be determined to be less than some set percentage.
For me, then, Type B science depends on equations that are less precisely constrained than in Type A science. In the case of Type B science there is difficulty in defining quantities and boundary conditions.
An example of a result of Type B science is the prediction of weather. The conclusions of Type B science have a much greater range of relative uncertainty than for Type A. This, by the way, is not to demean meteorology — given the complexity of the problem the meteorologists do a marvelous job!
Then there is Type C science. A major tool of what I call Type C science is curve fitting. In many cases it is the best that can be done, but the results are inevitably open to doubt. An example is the growth of a population with time where an observer fits the data to a population vs.
Now, finally, I will turn my attention to global warming. My concern in this essay is that science of all three types is applied to global warming and frequently, when the validity of conclusions is under discussion, no distinction is made between the three types of science. In my view this is acceptable to a certain extent.
Climate Science Glossary Term Lookup. Enter a term in the search box to find its definition. Settings. Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off). The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, known simply as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), is a Washington, D.C.-based conservative think tank that researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare. AEI is an independent nonprofit organization supported primarily by grants and contributions from foundations, corporations, and individuals. Must-See Videos. Here’s a collection of Internet videos exposing the lies used by global warming evangelists to promote their cause to an uninformed public.
Skepticism is a healthy component of scientific analysis and I believe that those who have made the measurements and compiled the data can and do adequately defend their conclusions. A major problem, as I see it, is that when deniers question the Type C science without coming to grips with the underlying Type A science they can deceive themselves and others into believing that they are attacking the basic structure of global warming science whereas in reality they are just dealing with a detail in the superstructure.
On the other hand to deny the Type A science showing global warming without finding a flaw in the argument see hfranzen. And further it makes no sense to attack the average earth temperature vs. To my way of thinking the hockey stick is not the basis of GW science, it is derivative and confirmatory, and its basic correctness depends upon the fundamental Type A science underlying the temperature changes.
If their answer is yes, then, importantly, it is not possible for them to take the fact of the debate as a demonstration that the major thrust of the science of global warming is basically flawed.
In short, if a denier disputes the claims of the hockey stick and is unwilling to accept the basic science of absorption of infra-red radiation by carbon dioxide then it is fruitless to discuss the hockey stick with that denier.Since the slowdown in surface warming over the last 15 years has been a popular topic recently, I thought I would show results for the lower tropospheric temperature (LT) compared to climate models calculated over the same atmospheric layers the satellites sense.
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, known simply as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), is a Washington, D.C.-based conservative think tank that researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare.
AEI is an independent nonprofit organization supported primarily by grants and contributions from foundations, corporations, and individuals. Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from year calendar monthly means, ).
The month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series.
Global warming is not a separate entity, nor uis Climate change. Furthermore these are not well defined subjects, they are vague. However, they are just results of what is happening to our planet – Global . The Medieval Warm Period, of which the proponents of Anthropogenic Global Warming don't want you to be aware, was a period in which agriculture flourished, helping Europe emerge from the Dark Ages.
(See Review Comments at the end of this Paper) Imagined risk. All available evidence indicates that man-made global warming is a physical impossibility, but if the predicted warming could be induced it would probably provide net benefits.